Would you bet against Enable?
The big international race is just around the corner in three days. Unless there will be any big surprise, the entry list should be complete. So, here are my Arc Ante Post tips below:
- Trainer: John Gosden
- Owner: K Abdullah
After winning the Arc in 2017 and 2018 respectively, Enable is searching for a record breaking hat-trick. Looking at her opponents, Enable (8/11) is the strongest runner for the Arc 19.
In 2018 when Enable won the race, the mare was not even 100% per cent fit, compared to 2019. On August 22 the mare won by a convincing 2/ distance from Magical and an nk in Ascot July 27. Enable seems fitter than ever and I fancy her to win the Arc 2019. Most pundits and the odds are also favouring her. We still have to look at the other runners, with some valuable options.
Enable to finish 1st.
- Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
- Owner: Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor
With Aiden O’Brien as the trainer, it’s hard to rule out Japan (6/1). The recent form of Japan (Winner of York August 21 and Ascot June 21) suggests Japan will be the main threat to Enable. The win in Ascot was by 4 L against Bangkok, and the Juddmonte International Stakes raised the claim for Japan, which made him the main bet for Jonathan Vine.
For me, the recent form of Japan won’t indicate a good race in the Arc. The 3 year old had a lumpy start to the year, and I believe Japan is overrated.
Japan to finish 4th.
- Trainer: J-C Rouget
- Owner: White Birch Farm
The Prix du Jockey Club winner in June Sottsass (7/1) showed good form in recent performances. Even though the runner disappeared for a while, Sottsass came back with a victory in Longchamp at the Qatar Arc Trial (September 15).
The three year old will possess the biggest threat to Enable, but I can’t see how Sottsass will overcome Enable at the last furlong.
Sottsass to finish 2nd.
- Trainer: Charlie Appleby
- Owner: Godolphin
Japan has Aiden, but Ghaiyyath (11/1) has Godolphin, which is always an advantage. The most recent win in Baden-Baden G1 race Impressed me. Ghaiyyath was in a significant lead towards the end and even had a larger margin towards the end. The race never seemed in doubt, and the margin said it all. It’s worth mentioning this was his first race in Baden-Baden.
If the runner could produce another similar performance, the last furlong will be a thrill to watch. I still think Enable is too good for Ghaiyyath the four year old, but 11/1 is a better price for Sosstass (7/1) and Japan (6/1).
Ghaiyyath to finish 3rd.
The other runners, such as Magical and Waldgeist, did not impress enough for the first four places.
These are my Ante Post tips for Prix de L’arc:
- Enable (8/11) – 1st
- Sottsass (7/1) – 2nd
- Ghaiyyath (11/1) – 3rd
- Japan (6/1) – 4th